Veteran fund manager sounds the alarm on Tesla

Veteran fund manager sounds the alarm on Tesla


Longtime fans of Elon Musk’s pioneering electric vehicle company Tesla  (TSLA)  have certainly seen it hit some impressive highs over the last 10 years.

Unfortunately, now the EV maker is facing some major lows. It reported a 20% drop in revenue on April 22 during its first quarter earnings call, and its stock has taken some concerning dips this year.

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The company’s net income also plummeted 71% to $409 million, which is a far cry from the $1.39 billion it made a year ago.

CEO Elon Musk quickly announced he would step back from all work with The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to refocus on Tesla, but the damage was already done — or at least some experts in the space seem to think so.

Related: Elon Musk faces growing legal Twitter/X problem

Musk has since said he intends to go back to focusing on his companies “24/7,” saying in a tweet on May 25: “Back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in conference/server/factory rooms. I must be super focused on X/xAI and Tesla (plus Starship launch next week), as we have critical technologies rolling out.”

While that sounds as if Musk is finally ready to give his own companies his all again, one veteran fund manager says that it’s simply not enough to make up for what’s happened in his absence.

The Future Fund’s Gary Black has cutting words about Musk’s new plan.

Image source: Ed McRedmond etfEd™ Advisory LLC

Why Musk’s return to Tesla is a ‘non-event’

The Future Fund manager Gary Black reshared Musk’s tweet about 24/7 work in the early hours of May 26, commenting that activity from Chinese EV maker BYD is already casting a shadow over Tesla that we can expect to see more of this coming week.

“$BYDDY -7.7% in Asia (1211 HK) after announcing temporary price cuts on 22 different EV models within its Dynasty and Ocean franchises that will run through June 30. The price cuts range from 6-20% and will likely be matched by Chinese EV competitors,” Black said. 

“This could weigh down $TSLA when it resumes trading Tuesday, although SPX and NDX futures were +1% on Trump’s decision to extend a proposed 50% increase in EU tariffs until July 9.”

Related: Analyst sets eye-popping Tesla stock price target

However, when it comes to Musk’s renewed efforts, Black had a few harsh words to say about that.

“We view Elon’s announcement that he will return 24/7 to $TSLA X and xAI as a non-event, since it won’t likely change TSLA’s declining delivery trajectory (FY’25 WS deliveries now 1,701K -5% YoY),” Black said.

“We remain concerned the new more affordable TSLA model due out in 3Q will be a scaled-down Model 3 or Model Y that is not a new form factor and therefore will not increase TSLA TAM,” he continued, referring to the budget Tesla Musk has promised in the past but since postponed.

Some Tesla fans disagree with Black’s take

Some folks in the comments of the tweet pushed back on Black’s take, such as X user Jeff Lutz, who said, “I don’t understand the BYD price cuts weighing on TSLA? I’m sure it’s possible to some extent but I thought dynasty and ocean series already sell at ATPs well below Tesla 3/Y… meaning Tesla has nothing at these tiers to counter w/a discount to match BYD.”

“From what I’m seeing, they just have a ton of channel inventory and appear to be under selling relative to their 30% growth targets,” Lutz continued. “It’s all anecdotal as nothing basic is reported on besides sales … DB and Citi believe they have an inventory problem, too…”

Black responded to the tweet, saying, “I hope you’re right. We’ll find out tomorrow. Usually price cuts impact all players, especially when the market leader — here BYD — [initiates] the price cut. In most situations, others follow, or they lose short-term volume.”

“Let’s hope $TSLA doesn’t follow the price cuts, because as you acknowledge, BYD has a ton of old inventory to move in front of refreshed models that will include self-driving for free,” he added.

Related: Leaked Tesla policy should infuriate Tesla loyalists

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