I use an estimated average annual investment return of 6.5% (before inflation) when planning for my own retirement. I came up with this estimate based upon my individual investment portfolio, which is roughly 70/30 stocks and bonds. Your number may differ.

Why does average annual rate of return matter?

When calculating how much money you need to save for retirement, you must estimate:

• How much you think you’ll spend.
• The average annual inflation rate.
• How much money you expect to get from Social Security.
• And what average annual rate of return you can expect from your investments.

It’s not easy, especially when retirement is decades away.

If you use an estimated rate of return that’s higher than reality, you risk not saving enough and running out of money in retirement. If your estimated rate of return is too conservative, you may end up with more money than you need when you’re older. Although that’s not necessarily a bad thing, it may put undue financial pressure on you now.

Using an investment calculator, you can see how even a 1% different in average annual return can make a big difference over several decades. For example:

• Over 30 years, a $100,000 investment that earns an average 7% return will be worth $200,000 more than if it earned an average return of 6%.
• If it earned an average return of 8%, it would be worth nearly $500,000 more than if it earned an average return of 6%.

What is ‘annual average return’?

The phrase ‘average annual return’ is ambiguous.

If you invested in a stock that went up 100% the first year and then came down 50% the next (a -50% annual return); one could argue the “average” annual return was 25%. But that makes no sense because the value of your investment is exactly where you started. Your net gain is $0.

This kind of “simple average” is sometimes used to describe the performance over time for very volatile investments. But, as you can see, it’s largely useless for planning purposes.

Therefore, when we talk about annual average investment return for planning purposes, we should be talking mean the annualized return, also known as the geometric mean or compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the hypothetical fixed interest rate that would result in compound interest turning a given present value into a given future value over a period of time.

You can calculate CAGR using the following formula, where PV = present value, FV = future value and Y = the number of years.

CAGR   =   (FV / PV)1 / Y  -  1

CAGR will take into account any dividends that are reinvested over the time period. It’s important not to underestimate the importance of reinvested dividends when looking at historical investment returns. Your expected returns will be lower whenever you withdraw dividends rather than reinvest them.

Historical stock market returns

Since it’s impossible to predict future stock market returns, the best we can do is to look at the market’s past performance.

Average annual returns are varied when you look at 10- and even 20-year periods, especially when accounting for inflation.

But when you zoom out to look at 30-year periods, returns stabilize. (Just another reason why time is the most important factor when investing.)

S&P 500 historical average annual returns

10-year periods

10-year period	Annualized return (CAGR)	Inflation-adjusted return
1974-1983	10.62%	2.27%
1984-1993	15.07%	10.95%
1994-2003	11.11%	8.53%
2004-2013	7.36%	4.88%
2014-2023	12.07%	9.03%

20-year periods

20-year period	Annualized return (CAGR)	Inflation-adjusted return
1964-1983	8.26%	2.02%
1984-2003	13.07%	9.74%
2004-2023	9.69%	6.93%

30-year periods

30-year period	Annualized return (CAGR)	Inflation-adjusted return
1933-1963	13.41%	10.31%
1963-1993	10.87%	5.40%
1993-2023	10.16%	7.46%

I don’t recommend anyone invest solely in the S&P 500. But if you did, it would be reasonable — based upon past performance — to use a 10% expected average annual return, before inflation.

In reality, you should have a more diversified portfolio. Although the S&P 500 — an index of 500 of the largest U.S. public companies — is probably the most common yardstick for the stock market as a whole, it’s not the whole story.

60/40 portfolio historical average annual returns

If we wanted a more typical example of how many people actually invest for retirement, we should look at a portfolio that’s 60% diversified stocks (large and small, U.S. and foreign) and 40% bonds.

The 60/40 portfolio is so popular because it balances the high risk and higher rewards of stock investing with lower-risk but lower-return bonds.

As of April 30, 2024, the 30-year average annual return of a 60/40 portfolio stands at 8.28%, or 5.42% adjusted for inflation (source).

Recently, the 60/40 portfolio has fallen out of favor somewhat because bonds have performed so badly in the current high-interest-rate environment. But the actual picture isn’t as awful as some critics say: Over the 10-year period ending in 2022, the 60/40 portfolio returned an average of 6.1%. In the 9 years prior to 2022, it returned 8.9%.

Will future stock market returns be worse?

Every so often, I come across financial experts warning that the decades of reliable stock market returns are over. Personally, I don’t buy it.

Someday, our global economy may hit its limit and be unable to grow much bigger. We are, after all, running out of natural resources and population growth is slowing. Most likely, these are concerns for our grandchildren.

That said, the future will always be uncertain. There is no guarantee that, over the next 30 years, the stock market will match its past performance.

This is where it pays to be slightly conservative when estimating future average investment returns.

Dave Ramsey is infamous for using a 12% expected average return when explaining the importance of investing. I think that’s not just a poor assumption but a dangerous one, as do most smart investors I know.

Why I use a 6.5% expected average annual return

I chose to use a 6.5% expected average annual return because it’s on the low end of recent 30-year returns for a 60/40 portfolio.

I hope and expect my actual returns may be higher, but I’d much rather be conservative in my estimate and be pleasantly surprised than get to retirement and realize I can’t afford the lifestyle I thought I could.

Still, some would say I’m not being conservative enough. I’ve seen people use estimated average annual returns, before inflation, as low as 5%.

What average annual return should you use?

The biggest individual factor in the estimated rate of return you’ll use is your risk tolerance and investment strategy.

For example:

• If you’re an aggressive investor and plan to stay invested in 90% to 100% stocks, a 10% estimated rate of return makes sense.
• If you’re an average investor with a 60/40 portfolio (or similar), I recommend an estimated return between 6% and 8%.
• If you’re a very conservative investor who plans to move to more than 40% bonds and/or cash, an estimated rate of return of 4% or 5% is appropriate.

What about inflation?

Inflation is the other wild card in retirement planning.

Historically, the U.S. inflation rate fluctuates between about 1.5% and 4% per year. So if you got a 10% return on your investments in a year that saw 3% inflation, your inflation-adjusted return is more like 7% (that’s an oversimplification, but you get the idea).

Remember, inflation is the whole reason you can’t just stash your savings in a bank account and expect to grow wealthy. If inflation is 3% and you’re only earning 2%, you’re losing money!

Personally, I like to look at inflation separately from investment returns. But doing so requires looking at what your inflation-adjusted spending needs will be in the future. Let’s look at the difference:

Returns not adjusted for inflation

If you invest $100,000 over 30 years and earn 9.5% rate of return, your money will be worth about $1.7 million in today’s dollars. If you’re planning to spend about $65,000 of today’s dollars in retirement, you might think that figure looks pretty good. $65,000 is 3.8% of $1.7 million, and that’s a comfortable withdrawal rate assuming you retire at or near 65.

What this forgets to take into account is how much money you’ll need to spend after adjusting for inflation. Assuming a 3% average annual inflation rate, you’ll need $157,000 in 30 years to afford the same lifestyle as $65,000 buys you today. Withdrawing $157,000 from $1.7 million is a 9.2% withdrawal rate, putting your retirement on shaky ground.

Returns adjusted for inflation

If we used inflation-adjusted returns instead, we find that $100,000 invested earning an annual return, after inflation, of 6.5% will yield $700,000 after 30 years.

Either way, the result is the same: You’ll need to withdraw 9.2% of your principal in order to cover $65,000 of expenses, in today’s dollars. So, in this case, you might need to adjust either how much you’re saving or how much you plan to spend in retirement.

Where to get help

Anticipating your rate of return is one piece of a much larger retirement puzzle.

If you’re still not sure, the best way to give yourself a head start on your retirement planning is to work with a certified financial planner. If you need help tracking one down, Paladin is a great resource. Simply input information about your goals and Paladin Registry will match you with a pre-screened financial fiduciary who can help you reach your savings goals.

Inflation is the sort of thing that tends to creep up on people — at least most of the time. In recent years, it’s been in everyone’s face — and has made it very difficult for working Americans and retirees alike to keep up with their bills.

Thankfully, Social Security benefits, which many retirees rely on, are protected from inflation to some degree. That’s because those benefits are eligible for an annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.

But data from The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, highlights what a poor job those COLAs have done through the years. Between 2010 and 2024, seniors on Social Security lost 20% of their buying power due to COLAs failing to actually keep up with rising costs as they relate to retirees.

It’s for this reason that advocates are pushing for changes to the way Social Security COLAs are calculated. But even if those changes come to be, it doesn’t mean that retiring on Social Security alone will be a good idea.

A more targeted measure

The current index Social Security COLAs are based on is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The problem is that the CPI-W does not do a good job of capturing the costs retirees face.

Put another way, the spending patterns of seniors on Social Security are apt to differ from those of people who are still working. And also, it’s not a given that Social Security recipients live in urban areas, and the CPI-W specifically focuses on urban wage earners. So all told, there’s a huge disconnect.

That’s why advocates have been pushing to base Social Security COLAs on the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly instead. That index would likely place more weight on spending categories like healthcare that are a huge expense for seniors in particular. If lawmakers agree to this change, it could result in more generous COLAs in future years.

Social Security won’t be enough, even with better COLAs

Larger COLAs could be a boon to retirees on Social Security. But even if lawmakers implement this change, it won’t suddenly make it a good idea to retire on Social Security alone.

The reality is that if you earn an average wage, Social Security will probably replace about 40% of it, assuming that benefit cuts don’t happen. But most retirees can’t live very well on a 60% pay cut. So even if changes occur that lead to more generous COLAs, it’s still important to have adequate savings so you can supplement your monthly Social Security checks.

To that end, aim to start funding an IRA or 401(k) plan as early on in your career as you can, and invest that money so it’s able to grow. If you’re not sure what investments to choose, you can consult a financial advisor.

If you’re not interested in hiring a financial advisor, you can always fall back on an S&P 500 index fund. This effectively allows you to invest your retirement savings in the broad stock market. It’s a great way to take the guesswork out of investing while making sure your portfolio is diversified.

A new, senior-specific formula for calculating Social Security COLAs could be a very good thing for retirees and lead to yearly raises that actually allow recipients to keep up with inflation. But that won’t change the fact that those benefits were never designed to replace workers’ paychecks in full. And you shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking you’ll be just fine on Social Security alone in retirement when in reality, that’s likely to lead to a world of financial stress and heartache.

Picture this: you’re at the Federal Reserve years ago. The chairman literally hangs up a conference call, waits 30 minutes, then calls back — suddenly everyone agrees on the rate decision. 

That’s the kind of insider story Karsten Jeske (“Big ERN”) shares when he joins us to break down what’s happening with the economy right now.

Karsten worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for eight years, then spent a decade on Wall Street at Bank of New York Mellon. 

Today he runs the popular Early Retirement Now website, where he applies his economist background to help people understand money and markets.

You’ll hear Karsten explain why the Fed is about to start cutting interest rates. The futures markets are pricing in a 90 percent chance of a quarter-point cut, with more cuts likely through the end of the year. 

But why? After all, inflation just ticked up in the latest CPI report, yet the Fed is still planning to lower rates.

We dive into how this affects real people. If you’re thinking about buying or selling a house, Karsten suggests acting sooner rather than later. 

He explains the “buy the rumor, sell the news” principle – the bond market may have already priced in the good news about rate cuts, so waiting might not help you.

The conversation covers some surprising economics too. Did you know that high interest rates can actually cause housing inflation? 

When mortgage rates are expensive, fewer people build new homes, which drives up prices. It’s the opposite of what most people think happens.

Karsten walks through the recent jobs report revisions that caught everyone off guard. The government had to subtract nearly a million jobs from their previous estimates. He explains how this happens – it’s not that officials are making up numbers, but tracking new businesses is genuinely hard to do in real time.

You’ll also learn about two Fed tools most people haven’t heard of: the dot plot and R-star. The dot plot shows where Fed officials think interest rates should go over time. R-star represents the theoretical perfect interest rate when the economy has no problems — currently around 3 percent.

The interview wraps up with Carsten’s take on Fed culture. The consensus-building era under Greenspan is giving way to more dissenting votes, which actually makes the central bank more like it was decades ago under Paul Volcker.

Enjoy!

 

Timestamps:

Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.

(0:00) Podcast introduction and guest background

(1:04) Carsten’s career path from Fed to Wall Street

(1:57) Current economic growth limbo state

(4:04) GDP formula and tariff impacts

(5:10) Trade efficiency and comparative advantage

(6:04) Supply chain threats from protectionism

(8:20) Fed meeting and rate cut expectations

(9:35) Market pricing in multiple rate cuts

(12:19) Real estate timing and mortgage rates

(13:55) How Fed rates affect treasury yields

(18:50) Buy the rumor, sell the news strategy

(22:13) Fed transparency and decision telegraphing

(25:56) Fed consensus culture versus dissent

(30:48) CPI data shows inflation ticking up

(34:32) Transitory versus persistent inflation confusion

(38:56) Fed behind the curve on rate cuts

(40:00) Major jobs report revisions explained

(44:24) Methodological issues with new business tracking

(46:00) Dot plot and R-star concepts explained

(52:29) Bond allocation strategies by age

(57:25) Current bond yields look attractive

 

Check out our previous interview with Dr. Jeske here.

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The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates. Inflation data is sending mixed signals. Social Security faces insolvency warnings. And the stock market looks both unstoppable and precarious.

What should investors and everyday savers do in this moment of uncertainty?

In this special bonus episode, we sit down with Rob Berger — former attorney, Forbes deputy editor, founder of the Dough Roller blog, host of the Rob Berger Show on YouTube, and author of Retire Before Mom and Dad. With more than a quarter-million subscribers, Rob is known for his clear, kind, and fact-driven financial insights.

Together, we unpack today’s shifting economic landscape — from Fed policy to retirement strategies across generations.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode

• Why the Fed is caught between fighting inflation and protecting jobs — and what a rate cut could signal. 
• The risks of stagflation and why markets remain richly valued despite economic uncertainty. 
• How “the Magnificent 7” tech giants skew the S&P 500 — and what true diversification looks like. 
• Smart asset allocation rules of thumb for different life stages. 
• What Social Security insolvency really means, and how to plan for possible benefit cuts. 

Key Takeaways

• Expect uncertainty. Predictions about rate cuts and inflation are shaky at best — plan for volatility. 
• Diversify beyond the S&P 500. International funds, small caps, REITs, and bonds can balance your portfolio. 
• Social Security isn’t disappearing — but benefits could shrink. Build contingency plans now. 
• If you’re underfunded near retirement, act quickly. Spend less, save more, and prepare for difficult tradeoffs. 
• Young investors should focus on control. Education, savings rate, and priorities matter more than macro conditions. 

Resources & Links

Glossary

• CPI (Consumer Price Index): A measure of inflation tracking the average change in prices for goods and services. 
• Stagflation: A rare economic condition where inflation remains high while economic growth stalls. 
• Basis Points: One-hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%). A 25-basis-point rate cut = 0.25%. 
• S&P 500: A stock market index tracking 500 large U.S. companies, often used as a benchmark for U.S. equities. 
• TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): Bonds that adjust with inflation to preserve purchasing power. 

Chapters 

• 00:00 – 02:40 Introduction and why this is a bonus episode 
• 02:40 – 04:00 Rob Berger’s background and credentials 
• 07:27 – 13:00 Fed rate cuts, inflation, and stagflation risk 
• 13:00 – 18:00 Market valuations, diversification, and the “Magnificent 7” 
• 18:00 – 22:00 Social Security’s solvency and retirement planning in your 50s and 60s 
• 22:00 – 25:00 Gen Z financial challenges and what’s still within their control 
• 25:00 – 27:00 Predictions (and why predictions usually fail) 
• 27:00 – End Where to find Rob Berger and closing thoughts 

Final Thoughts

Economic uncertainty doesn’t mean financial paralysis. As Rob Berger reminds us, we should focus on what we can control: how much we save, how we diversify, and what priorities we choose.

Tune in to this timely episode, share it with friends, and subscribe so you never miss our smart, approachable conversations on money and freedom.

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That’s because even as home prices continue to hover around record levels, they are also edging lower and lagging behind the rate of inflation, which has heated up amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation,” said Nicholas Godec, head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement on Tuesday. The last time that happened was mid-2023.

The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price data showed that the 20-city index fell 0.3% in June from the prior month, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

On an annual basis, the 20-city composite was up 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month, and the national index saw a 1.9% yearly gain, down from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 2.7% in June from a year ago.

“This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners,” Godec added. “Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”

Weak prices suggest underlying housing demand remains muted, he said, despite the spring and summer historically being the peak period for homebuying.

In fact, this year’s selling season has been a bust. While sales of existing homes have ticked up recently, they are still subdued and prices are flat. In addition, sales of new homes are slumping with prices down.

Conditions have been so dire that Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi sounded the alarm on the housing market even louder last month.

In Godec’s view, the recent shift in the housing market could represent a new normal—but one that also has a positive angle.

“Looking ahead, this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years,” he said.

That’s as pandemic-era hot spots in the Sun Belt have cooled off with demand increasingly tilting toward established industrial centers that enjoy sustainable fundamentals like employment growth, greater affordability, and favorable demographics.

“While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020-2022, it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess,” Godec added.

Meanwhile, analysts at EY-Parthenon sounded gloomier about the housing market in a report that also came out on Tuesday, predicting that home prices will turn negative on an annual basis by year-end due to low demand and rising inventories.

Home listings are up 25% from a year ago, and inventories have risen for 21 consecutive months. Homebuilders are also cautious given that demand is under pressure and construction costs are still elevated.

“Looking forward, the housing market is expected to stay stagnant, as slowing income growth and persistently high borrowing costs continue to limit demand,” the EY report said. “While proposed changes to the regulatory environment can help improve builder sentiment, elevated construction costs due to higher tariffs along with ample inventories will continue to constrain construction activity.”

Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.

Markets are coming off a monster rally on Friday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut next month.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 24 points, or 0.05%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.05%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.06%. On Friday, the Dow hit a new all-time high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed in on their records.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.256% after diving Friday on rate-cut expectations. The U.S. dollar was down 0.02% against the euro and flat against the yen.

Gold fell 0.13% to $3,413.80 per ounce. U.S. oil prices rose 0.2% to $63.79 per barrel, and Brent crude added 0.15% to $67.83.

Friday’s stock surge came after a big selloff that was led by tech giants, as doubts have grown about the AI boom and how much it will actually help companies.

That’s after a recent report from MIT found that 95% of AI pilot programs at businesses are failing to produce much of a return.

Adding to those concerns were remarks from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who drew a parallel between today’s AI frenzy and the 1990s dot-com bubble.

Wall Street’s faith in the staying power of AI as an investment thesis will be put to the test when Nvidia reports quarterly earnings after the close on Wednesday.

The report also comes after Nvidia and AMD agreed to an unprecedented deal where they give the federal government a 15% cut of their chip sales to China.

For now, demand from U.S. companies remains high as so-called hyperscaler tech giants Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms alone are expected to deploy $400 billion in capital expenditures this year, and most of that is going to AI.

On Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due as policymakers wait and see how much of an effect on inflation President Donald Trump’s tariffs are having.

Earlier updates on the consumer price index and the producer price index were mixed, and analysts expect the personal consumption expenditures index for July to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.6% on a yearly basis, the same annual rate as June.

But the core PCE is seen climbing 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.9% on a yearly basis, accelerating from June’s 2.8% annual rate.

Still, some Fed officials, including Powell, have indicated that tariff-related impacts on inflation may be short term and that more attention should go to the labor market, which has shown signs of weakening.

Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.

Arielle’s head is spinning from the seemingly contradictory advice she hears about the best investments to hedge against inflation and a possible recession. What’s she missing?

Dave is curious about private investments after listening to a recent First Friday episode. What are they, and should he consider them for his portfolio?

Abbey is stoked about the raise she negotiated for her first job out of school. But she’s worried about liability risk related to her new position. How does she protect herself? 

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.

Enjoy!

P.S. Got a question? Leave it here.

_______

Arielle asks (1:47): If gold and other inflation-resistant assets are so popular right now, why are some experts warning investors to stay away?

 I’ve heard you say in recent episodes that, given the current inflationary environment—and the possibility of a recession—many investors are turning toward assets like gold, art, and real estate, which are seen as inflation-resistant or more stable.

At the same time, you’ve also warned against predatory advisors or businesses pushing those very types of assets, especially to new investors. That left me confused. 

If seasoned investors are heading in that direction, but there are also bad actors promoting the same thing, how should a beginner like me make sense of it?

Can you help clarify how to think about gold, bonds, and other “inflation-proof” assets, especially as someone just starting to invest in the stock market?

Dave asks (36:17):  What exactly are private investments, and should we be paying attention?

I was listening to the First Friday episode where Paula talked about accredited investors and investing in private markets. That caught my attention, but I realized I don’t know much about what that means.

What kinds of private investments are out there? And how do they fit into the broader conversation we’ve been having around things like the efficient frontier, real estate, or mutual funds?

Could you shed some light on what these private investments look like—and when, if ever, they might make sense for someone like me?

Abbey asks (1:05:42):   What advice would you give to someone just starting a career as a 1099 worker?

A while back, I called in with a question about whether to invest money earmarked for tuition, assuming student loans would always be a backup. Well… let’s just say things didn’t play out the way I expected. 

Interest rates rose, markets dropped—and I learned some valuable lessons along the way. (Including one that confirms Joe was right.)

Fast-forward to now: I’ve graduated, landed a new job, and, thanks to your advice, successfully negotiated a significantly better contract—including a higher hourly rate, a more flexible schedule, and a much bigger signing bonus.

The new position is 1099, and I have a few questions as I navigate this transition. I’m 26 with $115,000 in student loans at rates between five and nine percent. I also have $70,000 in a Roth, $50,000 in a 403(b), and $10,000 in an HSA.

Do I need an accountant and/or tax strategist, and how should I go about finding one? I’m also entering the field of nurse anesthesia and feel a bit anxious about liability as a new grad. What steps should I take to protect myself financially and legally?

 

Resources Mentioned:

Interview with Nick Maggiulli

 

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