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Jamie Dimon drops surprising take on AI stocks

admin — Thu, 16 Oct 2025 20:44:51 +0000

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AI has transformed business, but in doing so, it has also rewritten the stock market’s leaderboard.

Since 2023, AI-driven megacaps have effectively become trillion-dollar machines, minting record-level gains while dominating the indexes. For a little color, Nvidia’s market cap alone has swelled from $1 trillion to over $4.3 trillion in a little more than two years, positioning it as the face of a market supercycle.

Moreover, this frenzy isn’t confined to public markets.

The Financial Times recently reported that 10 unprofitable AI start-ups added approximately $1 trillion in paper value over the past year. AI has, in essence, pumped multi-trillions into global stock market capitalization, reshaping both perception and pricing power.

Additionally, by October 2025, nearly 50% of the S&P 500’s $57 trillion market value is linked to “AI-exposed” sectors, including cloud and semiconductors, data-center energy, and software monetization.

That’s exactly where Jamie Dimon comes in. The JPMorgan chief just cut through the hype, questioning whether AI stock investors still know what’s real amid what has been a gold rush.

Jamie Dimon isn’t calling AI stocks a bubble yet.

Bloomberg/Getty Images

Jamie Dimon says the AI boom isn’t a bubble, but investors should get picky

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon just dropped a sharp take on the AI frenzy, calling it “real but risky.”

Speaking at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit in Washington, D.C., Dimon said that while AI will “probably pay off,” every project will survive. “You’ve got to go one by one,” he told the audience.

“Some of these things may be in the bubble, but in total, it’ll pay off.”

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Dimon’s view is blunt and has major implications for AI stock investors.

The JP Morgan head likens the AI revolution to a massive-scale industrial build-out, more “roads, cement, and steel” than a speculative stock play.

The problem, though, is that not every “AI” company gets the power, chips, or capital needed to finish what it started. That means that a significant number of splashy data-center projects may never even reach completion.

For investors, Dimon’s takeaway is mostly straightforward, in that it’s wise to avoid chasing every AI ticker. Look for companies with a strong liquidity profile along with clear visibility on power supply, disciplined spending, and real returns.

His message is remarkably pertinent, especially given the narrow and expensive nature of the AI trade over the past few years. Dimon’s advice relates to shifting from story stocks to operators that can actually execute.

Wall Street is divided on whether AI is a bubble or a boom

The debate over the sustainability of the AI trade is heating up, and even the bulls admit the air’s getting a lot thinner.

Goldman Sachs believes that this isn’t a 1999 redux, arguing that real profits back the AI surge of today, not just promises. Robust balance sheets and measurable productivity gains, they say, effectively shield it from “bubble” territory.

Moreover, Morgan Stanley expects AI software sales to reach a whopping $1.1 trillion by 2028, while UBS forecasts AI capital expenditures to reach $375 billion next year, increasing to $500 billion by 2026.

Google parent Alphabet and Microsoft are boosting their budgets, with Google alone expected to spend roughly $85 billion in 2025, as they both look to gain more ground on their competitors.

Additionally, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang refers to it as a shift from traditional data centers to “AI factories,” hailing it as more of an industrial transformation than a speculative fad.

However, the skeptics are sounding the alarm.

Barclays notes that AI’s boost to GDP is still relatively modest at just under 1% so far, warning that bottlenecks in power and logistics can drag returns.

Veteran investor Rob Arnott compares Nvidia’s surge to 1999’s mania, while billionaire Jeremy Grantham sees “super-bubble” dynamics taking shape across U.S. stocks.

Even the insiders are hedging. OpenAI’s Sam Altman feels investors are “overexcited,” and Intel’s Pat Gelsinger calls it “a bubble that won’t pop yet.”

Quick takeaways:

Bulls feel that profits and productivity are keeping AI from bubble status.
Skeptics are warning that energy limits and valuations could bite.
Even insiders see hype outrunning execution.

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says a recession could hit in 2026

admin — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 10:58:33 +0000

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It would be reassuring for markets to hear Jamie Dimon, the leader of America’s biggest bank and a veteran of Wall Street, say he didn’t see a recession coming. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.

In his decades leading JPMorgan Chase, Dimon’s economic opinion has been seen as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. But those who follow Dimon also know he conducts rigorous stress testing at JP, making sure the institution can withstand a range of outcomes.

To this end, Dimon isn’t taking a recession off the table for next year—even though GDP at present is tracking upwards. According to latest figures, U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.

But there are questions outstanding for analysts: Particularly those like Dimon who refrain from falling to the overly bullish or bearish side. Those questions include the impact of tariffs on inflation (if or when those increases truly hit), as well as geopolitics, the labor market, and whether AI will deliver the returns investors are banking on.

Dimon echoed this caution in an interview this week, saying: “I think [a recession] could happen in 2026—I’m not worried about it is a different statement. We’ll deal with it, we’ll serve our clients, we’ll navigate through it. A lot of us have been through them before.”

Previously the billionaire banker has warned the American economy is weakening, saying in September following a measly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that whether that weakness spills into economic contraction remains to be seen.

He struck a similar tone this week, saying in the conversation with Bloomberg: “You don’t wish it because you know certain people get hurt,” adding: “How it all sorts out? We’ll see.”

Dimon’s caution is at odds with some tried-and-trusted indicators. The Sahm Rule indicator—which signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points greater than the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months—sits at a comfortable 0.13%, assisted by a relatively stable unemployment rate.

Likewise JPMorgan itself wrote earlier this year the odds of a recession now sit at 40%, though global economist Joseph Lupton did note in the May release that the bank expects “material headwinds to keep growth weak through the rest of this year.”

Dimon, never one to bank on one outcome or another, did counter the warning with some reasons for optimism: “But I do think there are positives—like deregulation is a real positive, which also helps animal spirits … and you know, in the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ there’s also more stimulus, that has positives for the economy but maybe negative for inflation.”

Shutdowns are a bad idea

One thing Dimon is sure on is that the current government shutdown isn’t good news for anyone. Washington is currently locked in a stalemate over funding, with threats lingering over furloughed workers not receiving backpay and potentially even their jobs when they return.

Similarly, the majority of traders are expecting the government shutdown to last for more than 15 days, with 52% expecting it to drag on for more than 20. This presents problems for the Fed, which will meet in a week to make a decision on the base rate without key data from federal releases.

“Look, I don’t like shutdowns. I think it’s just a bad idea—I don’t care what the Democrats or Republicans say, it’s a bad idea,” Dimon said. “It’s not a way to run a railroad.”

Even then Dimon, like many others on Wall Street, don’t expect the shutdown to materially impact the economy: “You know, one of them went for 35 days, I’m not sure … if it really affected the economy, the market in a real way.”

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