In his decades leading JPMorgan Chase, Dimon’s economic opinion has been seen as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. But those who follow Dimon also know he conducts rigorous stress testing at JP, making sure the institution can withstand a range of outcomes.

To this end, Dimon isn’t taking a recession off the table for next year—even though GDP at present is tracking upwards. According to latest figures, U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.

But there are questions outstanding for analysts: Particularly those like Dimon who refrain from falling to the overly bullish or bearish side. Those questions include the impact of tariffs on inflation (if or when those increases truly hit), as well as geopolitics, the labor market, and whether AI will deliver the returns investors are banking on.

Dimon echoed this caution in an interview this week, saying: “I think [a recession] could happen in 2026—I’m not worried about it is a different statement. We’ll deal with it, we’ll serve our clients, we’ll navigate through it. A lot of us have been through them before.”

Previously the billionaire banker has warned the American economy is weakening, saying in September following a measly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that whether that weakness spills into economic contraction remains to be seen.

He struck a similar tone this week, saying in the conversation with Bloomberg: “You don’t wish it because you know certain people get hurt,” adding: “How it all sorts out? We’ll see.”

Dimon’s caution is at odds with some tried-and-trusted indicators. The Sahm Rule indicator—which signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points greater than the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months—sits at a comfortable 0.13%, assisted by a relatively stable unemployment rate.

Likewise JPMorgan itself wrote earlier this year the odds of a recession now sit at 40%, though global economist Joseph Lupton did note in the May release that the bank expects “material headwinds to keep growth weak through the rest of this year.”

Dimon, never one to bank on one outcome or another, did counter the warning with some reasons for optimism: “But I do think there are positives—like deregulation is a real positive, which also helps animal spirits … and you know, in the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ there’s also more stimulus, that has positives for the economy but maybe negative for inflation.”

Shutdowns are a bad idea

One thing Dimon is sure on is that the current government shutdown isn’t good news for anyone. Washington is currently locked in a stalemate over funding, with threats lingering over furloughed workers not receiving backpay and potentially even their jobs when they return.

Similarly, the majority of traders are expecting the government shutdown to last for more than 15 days, with 52% expecting it to drag on for more than 20. This presents problems for the Fed, which will meet in a week to make a decision on the base rate without key data from federal releases.

“Look, I don’t like shutdowns. I think it’s just a bad idea—I don’t care what the Democrats or Republicans say, it’s a bad idea,” Dimon said. “It’s not a way to run a railroad.”

Even then Dimon, like many others on Wall Street, don’t expect the shutdown to materially impact the economy: “You know, one of them went for 35 days, I’m not sure … if it really affected the economy, the market in a real way.”

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JPMorgan Chase is far ahead of its rivals — but the bank is still running the race with an eye on its competition.

In the first half of the year, JPMorgan’s market value reached nearly $800 billion, more than the market values of its competitors Citigroup ($168 billion), Bank of America ($344 billion), and Wells Fargo ($260 billion) combined. In the same period, the bank raked in $30 billion in profit.

According to a Wednesday Bloomberg report, JPMorgan was able to reach market value highs because it benefited from acquiring First Republic Bank in May 2023. The acquisition made the bank even larger and more powerful, allowing it to be the biggest bank in the U.S. with $3.9 trillion in assets at the time of writing.

Related: JPMorgan Will Fire Junior Bankers Over a Common Practice That CEO Jamie Dimon Calls ‘Unethical’

Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s competitors have been facing unique difficulties. For example, Wells Fargo’s growth in recent years has been limited by an asset cap, or a growth restriction imposed on the bank by the Federal Reserve in 2018, which limits the bank’s total assets to $1.95 trillion. The action was in response to a scandal involving the bank’s creation of fake customer accounts to meet sales targets. The Federal Reserve finally lifted the asset cap last month.

Citigroup, meanwhile, has been in the middle of a significant, multi-billion-dollar tech overhaul aimed at improving legacy software systems, and Bank of America has faced losses that could top $100 billion on its bond portfolio.

Still, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon isn’t ready to “just declare victory,” pointing out that the bank’s rivals are gaining ground.

“All of our major bank competitors are back growing and expanding,” Dimon said on an earnings call on Tuesday. “We’re quite cautious to just declare victory, like somehow we’re entitled to these returns forever.”

^{JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Photographer: Patrick Bolger/Bloomberg via Getty Images}

JPMorgan reported its second-quarter results on Tuesday, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of stronger-than-expected earnings. Reported revenue for the quarter was $44.9 billion, higher than the revenue of $43.8 billion that analysts expected. The bank’s net interest income, or the income it makes from loans and other products after interest payments, was $23.3 billion, up 2% year-over-year, while net income as a whole was $15 billion.

Related: JPMorgan Chase Says AI Could Cut Headcount By 10% in Some Divisions: ‘We Will Deliver More’

JPMorgan’s competitors are also reporting better-than-expected earnings. On Tuesday, Citi reported a net income of $4.02 billion, up 25% from the same period last year. The same day, Wells Fargo surpassed profit estimates with a net income of $5.49 billion, up from $4.91 billion a year prior.

On Wednesday, Bank of America beat estimates on earnings, with a net income of $7.1 billion compared to $6.9 billion a year prior, but was the only major U.S. bank to miss the mark on revenue.

JPMorgan shares were up over 19% year-to-date.

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