If there is one thing that investors need to understand about the energy sector, it is that oil and natural gas prices are inherently volatile. But there’s a somewhat counterintuitive takeaway here. Sometimes the best investment opportunities arise when business in the oil space isn’t going so well.

Which is why investors might want to buy ConocoPhillips (COP -2.80%) today. Indeed, the company’s successful business overhaul is so obvious that it is hard not to notice (at least partly because the company is so happy to point it out).

Image source: Getty Images.

Not such a great quarter for sales and earnings

ConcoPhillips’ earnings in the second quarter of 2025 weren’t great when you compare it to the same quarter in 2024, with a drop from $1.98 per share last year down to just $1.56 this year. But that doesn’t even do justice to the energy company’s earnings decline, since pulling out a one-time gain in the second quarter of 2025 drops the total down to $1.42 per share. That’s the worst quarterly earnings outcome in over a year and down sequentially from even the first quarter.

But that’s kind of how things go in the energy sector, where oil and natural gas prices drive the top and bottom lines of the income statement. In fact, it isn’t even remotely unusual for ConocoPhillips’ earnings to be volatile from quarter to quarter. That said, the energy sector is, generally, not in the best place today relative to the highs achieved in the price rebound coming out of the coronavirus pandemic.

For example, ConocoPhillips’ share price has fallen around 25% from its late 2022 highs. For comparison, Brent Crude, a key international oil benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate Crude, a key U.S. oil benchmark, have both lost about a third of their value over the same span. This could actually be a good time for more aggressive investors to consider buying ConocoPhillips.

An obvious reason to like ConocoPhillips

Assuming you can stomach the uncertainty of a commodity-based business like ConocoPhillips, there are good things happening at the company. Notably, it has been integrating the acquisition of Marathon Oil and executing above expectations. For example, it added 25% more resources than projected when the deal was inked. Despite that, it also managed to reduce the number of rigs it was operating on the added properties by 30%. All in, it was able to double the business synergies it projected, saving $1 billion in costs annually. And management managed to set up $2.5 billion in dispositions in nine months, when it had previously been looking to shed $2 billion in assets over a two-year period.

The dispositions are a special consideration. ConocoPhillips isn’t looking to get big for the sake of getting big. It is attempting to optimize its portfolio of assets so it can focus on only its best properties. That, in turn, should help to improve profitability over the long term. To be fair, even the best properties won’t change the variability in energy prices. But wider profit margins means the company will make more money when times are good and have more downside leeway when times are bad. ConocoPhillips isn’t hiding its success, it is proudly telling investors all about what it has achieved. In other words, there are obvious improvements taking shape at the business.

This is the setup for better performance in the future

To state the obvious again, as an energy company, energy prices are going to dictate ConocoPhillips’ financial results. Conservative investors looking for consistent earnings or reliable dividends (the company pays a dividend regularly, but the amount of the dividend is highly variable) probably shouldn’t buy the stock.

But if you are looking for direct exposure to energy prices, ConocoPhillips could be a solid choice given management’s efforts to overhaul the business. When commodity prices take off again, the upgrades made to the portfolio will help supercharge ConocoPhillips’ financial results. And Wall Street will almost certainly reward the stock for that.

• U.S. stocks rose and oil prices fell Monday, showing investor calm in the face of Iran’s attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar. Markets are holding steady due to strong fundamentals and historical resilience despite the threat of yet another military installation.

Stocks rose Monday and oil prices dropped even after Iran launched a missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar, in what experts are saying is a restrained response to prior U.S. strikes.

Trump administration officials stressed that the airstrikes on Saturday night were targeted at Tehran’s nuclear program and not aimed at regime change nor the start of a wider war that would require boots on the ground.

But the direct involvement in offensive operations—which included massive “bunker busters” dropped from stealth bombers—in what had been a conflict primarily between Israel and Iran still marked a major escalation.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 153 points, or 0.36%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.52%.

Earlier on Sunday before premarket trading began, Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives had a bullish take for Wall Street in the wake of the U.S. attack on Iran.

“The market will view this Iran threat as now gone and that is a positive for growth in the broader Middle East and ultimately the tech sector,” he posted on X. “It will take some time for this conflict to settle, but the market will view the worst is now in the rear-view mirror. Expect stocks up.”

U.S. oil prices were up 2.8% at $75.84 per barrel after paring gains, and Brent crude leapt 2.7% to $79.07.

While global markets had been expecting to see an initial jolt for oil, energy analytics firm Kpler pointed to other mitigating factors that could soften the blow eventually.

“Expect oil to open with a sharp 7–10% gap up as risk premiums surge. But don’t be fooled, this may not last,” it posted on X.

Iran’s ability to retaliate is constrained, Kpler noted, saying a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. Meanwhile, an early OPEC+ output boost for August of 411,000 barrels per day or more is increasingly likely, it added.

Escalation of the Middle East conflict could be a test of whether U.S. bonds and the dollar are still seen as safe-haven assets in times of crisis.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up 1.4 basis points to at 4.389%. The dollar fell 0.32% against the euro and 0.25% against the yen. Gold, which is emerging as an alternative to the dollar, gave up gains to trade flat at $3,385.00 per ounce.

The coming week will feature several key events and economic reports. Several Federal Reserve officials will speak throughout the week, including Chairman Jerome Powell who is appearing on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data for existing home sales, new home sales, and pending sales are due Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, respectively, as the housing market shows signs of oversupply and weak demand.

Also on Thursday, an initial reading on the trade deficit will come out amid Trump’s tariffs along with durable-goods orders.

On Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption and expenditures price index, is due.