Jason’s analysis of his retirement plan shows that the simple path beats the efficient frontier. Is he right or is he missing something?

Minerva is worried about the impacts of tax inefficiency to her wealth. Are her investments properly located?

Scott feels frozen because he doesn’t understand the nuances of the efficient frontier. Where can he get a simplified explainer so he can start taking action?

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.

Enjoy!

P.S. Got a question? Leave it here.

 

Resources Mentioned:

Episode 577-qa-the-efficient-frontier-was-perfect-until-hr-got-involved/ | Podcast Episode

Episode 547-ask-paula-we-have-2-million-at-40-now-what/ | Podcast Episode

Your Next Raise | Course

Asset Allocation Made Simple | Free Download

The Truth About Making the Efficient Frontier Work in Real Life

Acorns Bonus Link 

 

 

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Jason asks (at 02:24 minutes):   Is it possible that my simple portfolio is already outperforming the efficient frontier? Or am I misinterpreting the data?

I’ve been intrigued by the efficient frontier discussions over the past year, especially episode 577, where Joe helped a listener named Kelsey work through limited 401(k) options. As a public safety officer, I’m in a similar position. 

I have access to both a 457(b) and a 401(a), plus a pension that’ll provide a guaranteed income. So, I’ve been fairly aggressive with a 90/10 stock-to-bond allocation. According to Portfolio Visualizer, this mix has an expected return of 13.22 percent with a standard deviation of 14.33.

To compare, I asked ChatGPT to create a 90/10 allocation that would fall on the efficient frontier, using the funds available in my 401(a). It suggested 25 percent S&P 500, 25 percent large cap growth, 15 percent mid cap, 15 percent small cap, 10 percent international, and 10 percent bond.

But here’s the twist: when I plug that allocation into Portfolio Visualizer — using the 30 percent max weight guideline — the expected return drops to 12.9 percent with a higher standard deviation of 16.75. 

When I match the standard deviation of my current portfolio (14.33), the return drops even further to 11.65 percent, which seems contrary to what I’ve taken from your episodes. I thought the efficient frontier should help me increase returns for the same level of risk? 

I’m perfectly happy with a VTSAX-and-chill approach, but if the efficient frontier really can deliver better returns at the same risk level, I’d love to understand how to take advantage of it.

Am I misinterpreting something here?

Minerva asks (at 37:20 minutes):   What’s the best way to avoid paying unnecessary taxes on investments—without doing anything shady?

As we approach retirement, my spouse and I are starting to think about where our investments live. Up until now, we’ve focused almost entirely on tax-advantaged retirement accounts, but we’re ready to build out our brokerage account to complete our tax triangle.

That brings up a big question: Which types of funds belong in each type of account? 

Which investments are better off in IRAs or 401(k)s because they generate high tax drag? And which ones are more efficient to keep in a taxable brokerage because they throw off minimal gains along the way?

We’d appreciate a deep dive into tax-efficient asset placement—especially for those of us closing in on retirement.

Scott  asks (at 01:19:19  minutes): Do you have any straightforward resources that explain the efficient frontier and offer actionable steps for someone ready to move beyond a basic index fund strategy?

I appreciated Joe’s thoughtful take on the “VTSAX and chill” approach versus optimizing for the efficient frontier. I’m intrigued by the idea of taking 15 minutes to shift my portfolio toward something more efficient—but I’m not sure where to start. 

Part of the appeal of VTSAX is how simple and clearly defined the steps are, thanks to JL Collins. Are there any articles, videos, or guides that simplify the efficient frontier in the same way?

 

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JL Collins doesn’t know what the efficient frontier is. The author of “The Simple Path to Wealth” — the guy synonymous with VTSAX and chill — admits this right off the bat when we challenge him with advanced investing concepts.

Collins joins us for Part 1 of a two-part series where we skip the basics and dive straight into the complex stuff. We grill him on whether his simple approach actually beats more sophisticated strategies, and his answer might surprise you.

He concedes that Paul Merriman’s four-fund portfolio probably outperforms his one-fund approach mathematically. But Collins argues that execution trumps optimization every time. Most people can’t stick with complex strategies for 20 years, especially when those strategies require selling winners to buy losers – something that goes against human nature.

Collins prioritizes what works in real life over what looks good on paper. He calls index funds “self-cleansing” because they automatically rotate out failing companies and sectors while rotating in the new winners. You don’t need to predict which companies will dominate next – you’ll own whatever rises to the top.

The episode covers his thoughts on VTSAX versus VTI, international diversification, and why he’d rather put Tabasco than Cholula on his eggs — his quirky way of explaining personal preferences in nearly identical investment options.

Resources Mentioned
Episode 31, Interview in 2016 with JL Collins

Timestamps:

Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.

(0:00) Intro

(1:00) JL admits he doesn’t know the efficient frontier

(2:00) Simple vs optimal but complex paths

(4:30) Paul Merriman’s four-fund portfolio vs VTSAX

(6:00) JL concedes Merriman’s approach is mathematically superior

(7:30) Risk parity investing discussion

(8:30) Sequence of returns risk and retirement bonds

(12:30) JL’s birthday email from Jack Bogle

(15:00) VTSAX vs VTI 

(17:00) Total stock market funds across brokerages

(23:30) Mag 7 concentration risk

(27:00) Sears story and self-cleansing index funds

(30:30) International diversification and US dominance

(39:00) World funds versus separate international

(45:00) When to shift to world fund

(47:30) Bond allocation timing strategies

(48:30) Target date funds 

(50:30) One-fund vs two-fund approach

(52:00) Historical diversification and Nifty 50

 

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