Shares of African e-commerce leader Jumia Technologies (JMIA 5.05%) rallied 35% in September, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Jumia didn’t have much in the way of company-specific news in the month, as it disclosed second-quarter earnings results back in early August.

However, Jumia’s management gave an interview and hosted analysts, explaining how the Trump administration’s tariffs are actually benefiting the African e-commerce company. Midway through the month, a Wall Street sell-side analyst more than doubled his price target on shares, leading to a 22% increase on the same day.

As U.S. levies tariffs on China, Jumia can buy for cheaper

Early in September, Jumia CEO Francis Dufay gave an interview with Bloomberg, highlighting a number of points. Jumia has undergone a cost-cutting restructuring effort, and some of the currency volatility it experienced over the past quarters and years has calmed down. More encouragingly, Dufay noted Jumia now has better negotiating power with Chinese vendors as a result of the United States’ recent tariff policies, which have raised prices to U.S. consumers.

As a result of Jumia’s lower costs and better bargaining power, on Sept. 16, RBC Capital’s Brad Erickson raised his price target on Jumia shares from $6.50 all the way to $15. As of Oct. 7, Jumia’s stock sits just a bit below $12 per share. Erickson noted that he sees Jumia’s newfound leverage with Chinese sellers enabling it to increase the “take rate” — or the fee that it’s able to charge its vendors — by a half to full point as a percentage of revenue annually over the next few years.

The only company-specific news item during the month was Jumia announcing the launch of electric bike delivery in Uganda. The initiative is meant to replace its fossil fuel-based fleet, helping Jumia lower fuel costs and achieve its ESG goals.

Image source: Getty Images.

Jumia is a high-risk, high-reward international play

With the U.S. market trading at a significantly higher valuation than other markets around the world, international stocks like Jumia might have more upside than their U.S. counterparts.

Jumia isn’t very cheap, though, especially not after last month’s appreciation, trading at over 8 times sales, while the company is still losing money. However, the company is forecasting mid-teens GMV (gross merchandise volume) growth, with falling economic unit costs, and management predicts Jumia will get to breakeven by the end of 2026.

Jumia is still quite risky, but Africa has high growth potential, and profitability appears to be improving as the company grows.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva asked U.S. President Donald Trump during a phone conversation Monday to lift the 40% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on Brazilian imports.

Up until Friday, U.S. consumers could order up to $800 in goods per package from overseas without paying any tariffs or taxes. Now, this landscape is changing, adding to inflationary pressures that will squeeze everyday purchasing power, particularly for low- and middle-income Americans, experts tell Fortune.

“It’s a different shock to the system at a different level than what we’ve seen with the tariffs on large industrial goods,” Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank, told Fortune. “It does start up another near-term challenge for consumers and for businesses and spending overall.”

The de minimis exemption ended in May for imports from China, where an estimated three-quarters of goods under the $800 threshold came from, with a large share coming from e-commerce companies Shein and Temu. The de minimis suspension for parcels from all other countries implemented Friday now means the American dollar won’t buy as much as it used to, when it comes to shoppers purchasing goods made overseas.

“Categories like footwear and apparel will see some of the highest impacts, estimated at 15%-25% increased end consumer pricing, given the manufacturing origin often being China,” Sean Henry, CEO of Stord, an e-commerce and fulfillment company, told Fortune.

A senior Trump administration official said that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency has collected more than $492 million in additional duties on packages shipped from China and Hong Kong since ending the exemption.

And tariffs on goods that previously fell under de minimis could raise as much as $10 billion a year, U.S. trade advisor Peter Navarro told reporters Thursday. Putting that into perspective, the 2024 trade deficit in goods was $1.2 trillion.

“The net number (of tariff revenue without de minimis) is not all that meaningful in terms of how big the deficit is,” Baird Investment Strategist Ross Mayfield told Fortune. “The bigger difference is going to be the extent to which the government is levying these bigger, kind of broader swaths of tariffs.”

Over the past decade, the number of shipments entering the U.S. de minimis surged by more than 600%, from approximately 139 million in 2015 to almost 1.4 billion, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. However, the amount of revenue generated by these new tariffs depends on whether consumers are willing to continue to purchase cheap products from abroad.

“Nearly 40% of online shoppers abandon their carts when faced with these extra tariff and duty surcharges at checkout,” Stord CEO Henry said.

Lee Klaskow, a senior analyst of transportation and logistics at Bloomberg Intelligence, told Fortune he expects spending on these largely “discretionary” purchases to decrease.

“That Shein shirt that you really want that’s $5—maybe you’ll think twice about getting it because it’s going to be more expensive,” Klaskow said.

Prior to the pandemic, consumers had a “huge appetite for cheap things,” but Klaskow expects consumer behavior to flip in response to the change. 

U.S. Bank’s Haworth said he’s more focused on how the government will implement the change, as it will require new systems, investment, and infrastructure to collect on small purchases. 

He added the whole purpose of de minimis was to streamline the process of bringing small imports into the country, since they are more complex to track. The government has previously said this allowed illicit substances like fentanyl to cross into the U.S. more easily. Still, the system will need to recalibrate to adhere to the new rules.

“Originally why you had a de minimis exemption is so that you weren’t spending a lot of time on small transactions that didn’t net anything,” Haworth said. “So that’s kind of an interesting or challenging cost that is going to come into the business system.”

A key factor for the deficit forecast is President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which should help offset the impact of tax cuts and spending in the federal budget.

S&P reaffirmed its AA+ rating on U.S. debt last week, citing the overall strength of the economy, institutions that provide effective checks and balances, proactive monetary policy, and the dollar’s status as the world’s top reserve currency.

The outlook on the credit rating, which is a notch below the top AAA grade, remains stable because the deficit won’t muddy the picture. 

“This incorporates our view that changes underway in domestic and international policies won’t weigh on the resilience and diversity of the U.S. economy,” S&P said in a statement. “And, in turn, broad revenue buoyancy, including robust tariff income, will offset any fiscal slippage from tax cuts and spending increases.”

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to add trillions of dollars to the deficit over the next decade as new tax cuts were added while spending saw cuts to some programs and hikes to others. At the same time, the Congressional Budget Office sees tariffs shaving trillions of dollars off the deficit.

S&P actually see some improvement in the deficit, which is expected to shrink to 6% of GDP from 2025 to 2028, down from 7.5% in 2024 and an average of 9.8% from 2020 to 2023. But that will not stop the total debt from soaring past record highs last seen during World War II.

Meanwhile, S&P sees GDP growth accelerating to an average pace of 2% in 2027 and 2028, from 1.7% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.

“The combined implementation and execution of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, higher tariff revenue gains, and their effect on growth and investment will inform whether the fiscal trajectory improves or worsens,” S&P added.

So a lot is riding on tariffs. And given Washington’s reluctance to raise revenue via income tax hikes, analysts have pointed out an estimated $300-400 billion a year in tariff revenue would be too much to turn away, meaning levies are likely here to stay.

But so-called reciprocal tariffs are facing legal challenges that dispute their legal justification under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

A decision from a federal appeals court is expected by the end of September, but could come as soon as late August. And a letter from Justice Department officials with doomsday warnings about what would happen if tariffs are struck down suggested to some on Wall Street that the administration fears a court loss.

“In such a scenario, people would be forced from their homes, millions of jobs would be eliminated, hardworking Americans would lose their savings, and even Social Security and Medicare could be threatened,” the officials wrote. “In short, the economic consequences would be ruinous, instead of unprecedented success.”

Considering how important tariff revenue is to the U.S. credit rating, what would happen if the reciprocal duties are struck down? Would the U.S. be downgraded? S&P didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, not everyone is as sanguine about tariffs as S&P and the CBO are. Fitch ratings also reaffirmed its AA+ U.S. credit rating last week—but sees deficits worsening despite the tariff revenue windfall.

The deficit should shrink this year to 6.9% of GDP from 7.7% in 2024, as the resilient economy, solid stock market, and a tariff revenues send federal receipts higher. But when new tax cuts take hold next year, the situation will actually become worse than in 2024, as overall revenue drops. Fitch sees deficits spiking to 7.8% of GDP in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027.

“Government revenues will fall, driven by additional tax exemptions on tips and overtime, expanded deductions for state and local taxes (SALT), and additional deductions for people over 65 included in the OBBBA, despite the continued increases in tariff revenues, which Fitch expects to average USD300 billion in both years,” the ratings agency said in a statement.

Kate Gulliver, CFO and chief administrative officer at Wayfair, spoke with CFO Brew about her career, and about her company’s plan to roll with the punches.

From startup to category leader: In some ways, Gulliver has grown along with Wayfair. After working in private equity, she joined the company as head of investor relations in 2014, and helped to run its IPO. At that time, it had about $1 billion in sales and 2,000 employees, Gulliver said. She describes it as “a super high-growth but relatively immature company from a systems and process perspective.” Today, Wayfair employs around 12,000 people and brought in $12 billion in revenue from June 2024 through June 2025.

From investor relations, Gulliver became global head of talent, and was named CFO and CAO in 2022. Her career at Wayfair has evolved in an organic fashion.

“I largely let my career be guided by the opportunity most immediately in front of me,” she said. “I’ve never tried to guide toward ‘10 years from now, here’s where that role is getting me.’ It’s been more ‘Is this the next right move?’”

As a combined CFO and chief administrative officer, Gulliver has plenty on her plate: HR, finance, real estate, legal and compliance, corporate affairs, and communications all report to her. She enjoys the breadth of the dual role, which she says gives her insight into the “backbone” of the company. “Intellectually,” the many departments she oversees “can feel quite different day to day, which is fun,” she said.

A turbulent five years for retail: As a seller of discretionary goods, Wayfair has been on a rocky ride over the past five years. It was able to capitalize on the home goods boom of the pandemic, when shoppers stuck in lockdown were buying items for their spaces. But as restrictions lifted and consumers pivoted toward spending on experiences, it saw net losses for three consecutive years. Wayfair had to restructure and underwent several rounds of layoffs, cutting around 13% of its workforce, or 1,650 jobs, in 2024.

Now, though, the category is “starting to stabilize,” Gulliver said. Wayfair had a bumper second quarter this year, with revenues rising 5% year over year.

“We’re feeling good about the momentum currently,” she said.

Wayfair isn’t seeing consumer softness yet due to tariffs and economic uncertainty, Gulliver said, though it’s seeing more strength in its high-end lines, such as Perigold, AllModern, and Joss & Main, than in its “core mass” lines. (“There’s no question the higher-end market is stronger than mass,” CEO Niraj Shah said during a recent earnings call.) The company is keeping its eye on the macroeconomic picture, though. It’s doing a lot of forecasting, incorporating both its internal data and third-party inputs such as credit card data and housing market trends, Gulliver said.

So far tariffs haven’t had that much of an impact, Gulliver said. That’s partly because Wayfair is a marketplace. Sellers post many unbranded items that look similar to one another, so they’re largely competing on price, she said. Lower prices also allow for better placement on Wayfair’s search results, boosting sales. Sellers, Gulliver said, are finding ways to absorb or offset tariffs at different points along the supply chain, which is “helping to insulate consumers” from higher prices. “Consumers are still seeing like-for-like pricing,” she said.

AI, how about midcentury modern? Wayfair is also anticipating changes generative AI might make to shopping habits. It’s partnering with some major AI providers on developing agentic shopping tools, Gulliver said. And it’s added GenAI features to its website and app that show customers how furniture might look in different spaces within a home, alongside recommendations for similar Wayfair products. “It’s a fun way to capitalize on how consumers might be changing how they shop,” Gulliver said.

At the same time, the retailer’s made a surprisingly analog move: opening brick-and-mortar stores. Its Chicago store has resulted in a “halo” effect, boosting sales and brand recognition in the Chicago area, Shah said on an earnings call. Three more physical stores are planned in the coming years.

As a Wayfair shopper and home design fan herself (“That is the thing I read about in my spare time”), Gulliver understands what consumers are looking for. But even her broad remit, she acknowledges, only goes so far. “I’m always going to the brand team or the merchant team” and asking, ‘Have we thought about getting this product?’,” she said. “And they’re like, ‘Kate, stay in your lane.’”

This report was originally published by CFO Brew.

The US Economics Weekly note from the Swiss bank noted real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.2% in the first half of 2025, a significant step down from the more robust pace observed in 2023 and early 2024. Quarter-over-quarter growth figures point to a sequential weakening, the team led by economist Jonathan Pingle added, particularly in domestic demand, which has dropped from above 3% last year to around 1% in recent quarters.

Labor demand is responding in kind. Monthly nonfarm payroll growth has slowed sharply, with July seeing an increase of only 73,000 jobs—well below expectations and accompanied by sizeable downward revisions for previous months. The three-month average for job gains is now just 35,000 per month, a rate described as “stall speed” by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller. (Both Bowman and Waller are prominent names floated to replace Fed chair Jerome Powell, a figure the Trump White House has extensively criticized.) The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.25%, the highest level since 2021, and the broadest measure of labor underutilization, known as U-6, is also trending higher—more than a percentage point above pre-pandemic levels.

Crucially, Pingle’s team found shrinking labor force participation rather than a sudden immigration or population shock is behind the weaker labor force growth. “The drop in the labor force participation rate has masked how much slackening is actually taking place,” the report contends, noting that multiple demographic groups, including Black Americans and teenagers, are showing higher unemployment and falling participation.

Population growth as recorded by the household survey is holding steady near previous years’ levels—contradicting assertions that tighter immigration is meaningfully constricting the labor market. UBS notes this contradicts statements from Jerome Powell: “Despite Chair Powell’s pronouncement at the post FOMC press conference that the immigration slowdown was slowing population growth and thus labor force growth, that is not what is happening in the actual data. The Household Survey and Establishment Survey look more like the labor market is slackening, and the household survey itself estimates that population growth is not slowing.”

The average workweek remains subdued, sitting at 34.25 hours in July—below 2019 levels and far from the “stretching” typical when labor markets are tight due to worker shortages. Industry-specific data show that job losses are not concentrated in sectors with large immigrant workforces, further supporting the view that slack comes from weakened demand, not a supply constraint.

Tariffs set to climb, threatening further drag

Tariff policy, after a series of negotiations and executive actions, is on track to become even more restrictive. The new suite of reciprocal tariffs, including a 35% rate on Canadian imports (excluding USMCA-compliant goods) and across-the-board hikes affecting nearly 70 countries, is expected to raise the U.S. weighted average tariff rate (WATR) from about 16% to approximately 19% starting in early August. UBS estimates this will subtract 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points from growth over the next year.

Sectoral carve-outs persist, but with the EU now facing a 15% tariff on most exports to the U.S.—lower than originally proposed, but still a significant rise—UBS expects direct pressure on prices for automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and more. Presidential proposals to slap a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals remain under discussion, but would have massive implications if implemented.

Rate cuts on the horizon

With evidence mounting that both growth and labor markets are softening and that tariffs may further boost core inflation from 2.8% currently to as high as 3.4% by year-end, pressure is building for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. While Chair Jerome Powell kept a possible September rate cut on the table, he offered little forward guidance, stating that the totality of incoming data will dictate the next move. UBS maintained its expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut rates by 25 basis points in September and by as much as 100 basis points before the end of 2025.

Ultimately, the bank found that the U.S. economy has entered a clear slowdown as 2025 unfolds, with fading domestic momentum, cooling job growth, and the shadow of higher tariffs likely to dampen the outlook further. UBS researchers argue that the data show a demand-driven deceleration, not a supply squeeze, and that the Fed will likely act soon to cushion the landing.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.